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May 20, 2007

3:01 PM (564 days, 6h, 15min ago)

May 2007 Mammoth Minute Real Estate Newsletter


Mammoth Minute Real Estate Newsletter  Stacie Robbins

 
Mammoth Minute Real Estate Newsletter
Stacie Robbins, REALTOR Associate, e-PRO
May 2007
In This Issue  
Single Family Home Listings  
Mobile / Other Home Listings  
Condominium Listings  
Multi-Family Listings  
Vacant Land Listings  
Fractional Ownership Listings  
Commercial Listings  



It's starting off to be a beautiful summer.  I know most of the locals are happy to have the summer come a little early this year considering the heavy snow last year.  The weather has been warm and sunny in the day and breezy and cool at night.

With Snowcreek Golf Course opening May 17 and Sierra Star scheduled to open May 25, golfers are sure to appreciate the great weather and conditions.  Skiing and snowboarding come to a close Memorial Day weekend this year.  It's a great time to come and ski one day and play golf the next.

North of Mammoth, world reknowned Whoa Nellie Deli! at the Mobil station in Lee Vining is now open.  Home to the best Mango Margaritas I've ever had!  Try stopping in for a pitcher and to watch the amazing sunset over Mono Lake.

Summer this year is not only full of activities to take advantage of early on, but this year is an especially good year to look at property.  Read the article below on new information heard first hand from Craig Knight, Vice President of Development for Starwood.  This summer may be the calm before the storm of national and international attention for Mammoth in upcoming press releases.

Remember, you can always get more information and photos for a listing by:

(1) Writing down the MLS# of the property 

(2) Emailing me ( Stacie@OwnMammoth.com) with the subject "Send More Info" and include the MLS#.

It's that easy and I'll respond via email with more details on the property.

Mammoth Real Estate Outlook - May 2007
 
What's happening in the local Mammoth market?
Real Estate News

Buyer activity is beginning to rebound although prices continue to decline as sellers become more motivted.  There are some really great opportunities to pick up Mammoth property at a reasonable price usually well below appraised value.  The thing to keep in mind is that when the tide turns in the market, the switch will come back on and all buyers will be jumping back in the market at the same time.
 

Last month, on a month to month comparison from March, sold inventory was down 38.46% in Mammoth (42.86% decrease including other surrounding areas). In relation to dollar volume, Mammoth is down 72.11% (73.56% including other surrounding areas) and ratio of list to sales price is averaging in the low 90% range. In looking at April of 2006 sales, compared to sales activity this April, Mammoth's sales by units are down 45.83% (50% over all) and down in dollar volume by 156.68% (156.78% over all).

As a seller, it's not the greatest time to sell.  Sorry, but the news is not good for sellers who still hope to add 10% or more to where prices were last year.  The price decline has moved that amount but in the opposite direction.  That may be changing soon with upcoming accouncements expected from Mammoth Mountain Ski Area and Starwood.

In April, I put a Snowcreek V property into escrow at over $1 million.  Although there is not alot of activity, there are bargains to be had if you are looking for them and ready to act.

Time on the market has increase from less than 30 days in our peak market to 90 - 120 days or more in the current market. Of course, this is all dependent on competitive pricing, without which, the property could be on the market a year or longer.

This is really a great time to buy with negotiating power and interest rates in the buyer's favor.  I've negotiatiated really great deals, in some cases more than 10% off of list price.  If you're in the market to buy, let's talk and see what I can do for you.

 

The Subprime Mess Hits Some Harder Than Others
 

The subprime "mess" continues to make news. The subprime market woes have led to lenders tightening lending standards, and so there will be further weakening in home sales. The already delayed housing recovery – now postponed to the fourth quarter of this year – will not measurably dent housing inventory levels even as homebuilders significantly cut back on new construction. As a result, the national median home price is projected to decline for the first time since the Great Depression era. Prices are expected to fall 0.7% in 2007. But as industry professionals are well aware, the health of the real estate market is determined by local factors. Aggregate national figures can mask the exciting up-and-down dynamics that work at the local level. The drop in home price is a national average.

Not All Markets Are Created Equal

Some markets like Portland OR, Raleigh NC, and Austin TX could experience price gains close to 10%. For homeowners, that means their homes will yield an immediate one-year wealth gain of about $20,000. Other markets like Portland ME, Washington D.C., and San Francisco appear to have passed their low points and are poised to start making meaningful positive price gains.

Still, it is likely that other markets will see a price decline. Markets that have endured or will see job cuts or large net out-migrations are very prone to further rises in inventory and price declines. Cleveland and Detroit come to mind. (Owning is much cheaper than renting in these markets so it would be interesting to see if keen investors begin to pick up properties and rent them out.)

Markets like Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas have undergone unusually large swings in inventory attributed to a high presence of second homeowners and speculators. They leave two big question marks as to price drop: how much and when. The latest 12-month job figures show that Phoenix was the third top job producer with 89,200 net new jobs – right behind Dallas and Houston. South Florida and Las Vegas are also adding jobs, although the growth rate has been cut due to weaker construction employment. Home prices in these regions had essentially doubled during the real estate boom – so some correction in prices is understandable.

Florida, Arizona, and Nevada have also consistently been the top recipients of new people moving in from another state. As evidenced by a strong rise in health care related employment in these regions, many newcomers are of an older generation. With a rising number of new retirees with each of the next 20 years, the long-term prospects are as sunny as the region’s weather. The question is about the short-term. Inventory is excessive, and new completions of new condos are in the pipeline as well. But jobs and in-migration are demand boosters. Builders may be finishing up on old projects but certainly are not eager to start new ones. Housing permits in these three markets are running about 50% below their peak levels in 2005 – a sure indicator for declining inventory later in the year.

Time is Not Always Your Friend
Trying to market time often leads to regrets. Advice: Those with financial means would do well to go ahead and buy now rather than later. Why? Long-term prospects are bright. Mortgage rates will be higher later. Each 0.1% percentage point rise in rates cuts home purchasing power by 1%. Mortgage rates are projected to be 6.6% by year’s end – up from their current 6.1%. That is 0.5% percentage point rise in rates. Waiting, therefore, means losing 5% in purchasing power. If prices fall by 5%, then the buyer who may have initially thought of getting a better bargain will not, in fact, be really better off. It is a wash with 5% lost in housing purchasing power. If prices do not fall, then the buyer is worse off.

The subprime mess and the housing contraction are the major reasons for slower economic expansion in 2007. There were 127,000 fewer residential construction-related jobs in the past 12 months versus about 200,000 annual additions in the prior three years. But a recession is unlikely. Steady-spending consumers and rising exports because of improving foreign economies more than offset any economic decline from the housing sector. The one wildcard is business spending. Corporate profits are high and the stock market is doing fine. But corporations surprisingly cut back on plant and equipment purchases in late 2006. That is likely to have been a fluke. A modest rise in business spending (out of companies’ ample cash flow) assures that economy will escape recession.

What sold in April?
 
Property Listings

There were a total of 35 sales in all areas in the month of April (26 in Mammoth). Mammoth's statistics showed a 38.46% DECREASE in units sold and 72.11% DECREASE in dollar volume. The overall statistics for all areas showed a 42.86% DECREASE in units sold and a 73.56% DECREASE in dollar volume.


News from Starwood/Mammoth Mountain Ski Area
 

* The latest breaking news on the future plans of Mammoth Mountain Ski Area and Starwood Development was shared by Vice President of Development for Starwood, Craig Knight, in Mammoth on May 17, 2007 at the Coldwell Banker offices.  Craig reports directly to Barry Sternlict, CEO of Starwood, and Gary Raymond, CEO of Intrawest and heading up Starwood Development.

* In the long term, over the next 5 to 10 years, the focus will be on bulking up the Sunday through Wednesday visitors for both Summer and Winter.

*  The three top issues that Starwood believes it needs to address in Mammoth is:  Access, Hospitality and Off-mountain Amenities.

*  Access:  Chair 9 is being redone this season; Mammoth Lakes Trails * Public Access (MLPTA) is an organization working for trail systems with better identification for connecting forest trails with trails throughout town.  Starwood/MMSA has donated $100,000, matched with Town funds of $100,000, to MLPTA as seed money to further their initiatives.

*  Hospitality:  The high end market has been lacking in Mammoth which is why Starwood is focusing more on it now with plans for upscale projects.  However, this is not to be interpreted as leaving out the 1 - 3 star market which has been the foundation of Mammoth's visitors for many years.  They are also developing key partnerships to run the food and beverage outlets for MMSA/Starwood.

*  Amenitities:  Because the average 7 day ski trip only entails about 2 days of actual skiing, there is a dire need for off-mountain activities.  They want to focus on the entire experience by putting more into off-mountain improvements at this point.  Starwood/MMSA has recently brokered a deal with WTS International Spa Co. for a free standing commercial space across from The Village.  They are also working to get recreation facilities underway and are receiving developer impact fee credit for providing the ice rink facility in the plans for the new Eagle Base Lodge. 

*  The "1" hotel will be the 'Green' brand; LEED certified and will launch in the next 18-24 months.  The average size will be 850-900 sqft.  The property will include a high end restaurant and nightclub.  Locations will be in Washington DC, New York, Paris, Seattle, Scottsdale and Mammoth Lakes.

*  The new Eagle Base Lodge will include 50,000 sqft of base lodge facilities and another 68,000 sqft for residential units.  The average residential unit will be larger than "1", at about 1700 sqft.  The key to this property will be the flag it bears which is still in negotiations and dependent upon airport service.

*  A new five star hotel is planned in Sierra Star Golf Course in the next 24 months (Rumor has it that it may be a Four Seasons).  A third party partner will be taken on to move Sierra Star Golf Course to the next level.

*  New real estate projects will be at a price point of no less than $1300/sqft with the exception of a quarter share ownership project planned on Fairway 7 which will start with a $200,000 price point.  This may be released in the fall or the first of 2008.

*  Contrary to rumors, Starwood/MMSA has no plans to purchase the three corners at Main Street and Minaret.

*  The Altis project which was to be a fractional ownership opportunity for modern style paired homes is still on hold.  They has been discussion to bring it back as fractional ownership or even possibly full ownership.

*  Key markets that Starwood/MMSA plans to target to build mid-week visits are Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas. (A flight from San Fran to Mammoth is less than 50 minutes.)

*  To clarify misconceptions, the rodeo grounds in June Lake (across from June Mountain) is completely owned by Intrawest, not Starwood/MMSA.  Other projects that are completely owned by Intrawest are The Woodwinds, Solstice and Westin Monache.

On your next trip to Mammoth, give me a heads up and I'd be happy to prepare some information for you and show you property when you're ready to buy.

Being on the forefront of technology used in real estate, I have a Blackberry smartphone with me all the time. My emails and phone calls are received on this device and I am able to respond immediately. So feel free to send off a quick email to me anytime if you have a question.

Sincerely,

Stacie Robbins
Stacie Robbins, REALTOR Associate, e-PRO

Coldwell Banker Mammoth Real Estate

Phone: 760-924-0226 or 800-836-9420
Fax: 760-923-6393




Coldwell Banker Mammoth Real Estate 3293 Main Street PO Box 1059 Mammoth Lakes CA 93546-1059

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